The sovereign can no longer say, "You shall think as I do on pain of death;" but he says, "You are free to think differently from me, and to retain your life, your property, and all that you possess; but if such be your determination, you are henceforth an alien among your people."

(Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America, 1835)
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts

Thursday, 3 June 2010

The fall-out from Kohlergate

Following Frederik's post last week on the comments made by the now former German President Horst Kohler, I'd like to highlight this article from the Wall Street Journal, Germany needs to grow up.

Horst Kohler resigned on Monday following the controversy stirred up by his comment on Germany's engagement in Afghanistan:

"A country of our size, with its focus on exports and thus reliance on foreign trade, must be aware that military deployments are necessary in an emergency to protect our interests, for example, when it comes to trade routes, for example, when it comes to preventing regional instabilities that could negatively influence our trade, jobs and incomes."

That statement is a fairly succinct summary of the reason's for the international community's engagement in Afghanistan. Moreover, the same reason applies to the international community's counter-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa (under NATO, EU and national flags). Do we send ships to the Gulf of Aden to help the people of Somalia or because 7% of the world's oil passes through those straits alone?

I think the basic message of the WSJ article - that Kohler was merely stating an obvious truth and a failure to understand that is a failure to understand the world we live in - is basically right, although perhaps the tone is unnecessarily caustic and greater empathy for the context of German history would have been appropriate. Moreover, the article misses the point that Frederik made in his post, that Kohler's comment has considerable legal implications in Germany.

However, if I were to internationalise this debate then I would have to challenge the assertion, made both by Frederik and the WSJ, that such a comment would have passed unnoticed in most other countries. It may well be true that only Germans could find Kohler's words incendiary but many other Europeans (especially those with a poor grasp of history) would find them at least controversial.

For example, Gordon Brown regularly linked the war in Afghanistan to the fight against terrorism, stating that the vast majority of terrorist plots uncovered in Britain were conceived or planned or organised in the Afghan-Pakistan border regions.

Barack Obama directly links the war in Afghanistan to the fight against al-Qaida. Although it was not the Obama administration that made that link and although Obama himself is probably too smart to really believe that, the fact remains that the war continues to be sold to the American public on that basis.

My point here is not to claim that the international community is engaged in Afghanistan under false pretences. My point is that, for some reason, publics seem to need more stark reasons for military engagement abroad than mere protection of trade and national interests through prevention of regional instabilities.

If an American politician or decision-maker made the same statement as Horst Kohler, what kind of reaction would he/she receive? Probably in America this kind of statement would - indeed does - go largely unnoticed, simply because it is relatively commonplace.

The real question is if a European (other than German) politician or decision-maker made the same statement as Horst Kohler, what kind of reaction would he/she receive?

While the German context is a unique one for obvious historical reasons, I think that its not only the Germans who need to accept certain realities. I think the same applies to many Europeans, albeit to varying degrees depending on nationality, demography or even political allegiance.

The simple fact is that Kohler spoke the truth and a perfectly valid truth at that. The sooner Europe accepts this and bases foreign and security policy around it, the more effective Europe will be on the world stage.

Tuesday, 30 March 2010

"When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will."

Substitute 'soldiers' for 'Taliban' and Frédéric Bastiat accurately foresaw a major factor in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan... although one might argue that many goods (notably AK-47s) do already cross the Afghan-Pakistani border and that the Durand line is not a real border anyway.

I'm beginning to wonder if there are any problems in the world today that were not caused by bespectacled English civil servants randomly drawing lines on maps from the safety of their dusty offices in Whitehall. However, that's another subject for another day.

It is perhaps with Bastiat's maxim in mind that the G8 have announced further measures to encourage cross-border trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The initiative aims to create local employment in the border regions and follows similar projects such as the Dubai Process (which began in January 2007).

I recently attended a conference where Amb. Randolph Mank, Canadian High Commissioner in Pakistan (Canada currently chairs the G8), described the Dubai Process in some detail. Essentially the idea is to bring together technical-level people and ask them what they need. It led to an agreement between Kabul and Islamabad to open their three (legal) crossing points seven days a week, up from the previous five days, as well as further discussions and/or agreements on customs, counter-narcotics, the movement of people and socio-economic development - namely, infrastructure for trade facilitation (road, rail etc) so that trade corridors may underpin reconstruction and reconciliation.

I'd be curious to learn what tangible impact these well-intentioned initiatives have actually had on the ground. It seems to me that such initiatives are not only complimentary but essential to the population-centric approach to counter-insurgency (see Frederik's recent post on that subject).

Moreover, I would argue - as many have before me - that we should not limit our efforts to the Afghan border with Pakistan. I can understand why that particular line in the sand would be the focus of the international community's attention but I think the same principles hold true around the entire perimeter of Afghanistan's territory. Given that country's historical position as a crossroads on the Silk Road, it seems perfectly logical to use geography as a stimulus for economic development. Translation: invest in road and rail links, as well as facilities such as cold storage, which can help Afghanistan become (once again) a major trade hub between Central Asia and/or China and the seaports on the Pakistani and Iranian coast.